Chilliwack – Bill Westmacott, Owner, Fivefold Financial, Life Insurance Broker in BC and Wealth Solutions provider.
As I have warned and forecast for many years now, we are in a highly turbulent season marked by wars, economic uncertainty, unprecedented global debt and significant shifts in global trade partnerships. The Ukraine-Russian war is now in its 5th year, and no sign of ending. Over 2 million lives have been lost or severely injured…so tragic! This weekend, the Middle East was set ablaze with the USA/Israel coalition against the terrorist regime of Iran (not the Iranian people). Iran is recklessly firing missiles and drones at over a dozen countries in the region and killing innocent civilians. Let us pray that the war will end soon, and a sensible government can replace the oppressive Ayatollah’s radical agenda of hatred and murder throughout the entire region. Ayatollah was personally responsible for the murder of tens of thousands of Iranian people, imprisonments, torture and creating countless deaths and chaos in the Middle East and funding billions for terrorism. In my opinion, he received a just demise this weekend for his wicked life. Millions of Iranians are cheering worldwide at the demise of the Ayatollahs and key leaders. I will provide insights shortly on how war impacts markets.
Market Update: Despite growing geopolitical chaos, markets have been resilient in 2026 due to the massive liquidity by central banks and most governments running huge deficits. I do not believe these massive debts are sustainable, but the party will continue for a while. There is growing evidence of strain in the financial system, and many people are struggling financially due to inflation, carrying high debt and lagging wage growth. We are seeing asset rotation from the Magnificent Seven into other, more defensive companies/sectors, and one needs to be attentive to their portfolio and have the right asset mix and be in the best-performing regions. (see index chart below).
Here in Canada, we continue to lag the G7 economically and have had stagnant growth (Sub 2%) for well over a decade now. There are bright spots in Canada. We are a resource-based economy (gold, silver, copper, uranium, and other base metals), oil and natural gas, and Saskatchewan is a world-class leader in potash. These sectors have performed well over the last year. If the Federal government were to reduce the onerous regulatory burdens, endless fees and taxation, Canada could be a resource superpower. Canada desperately needs new capital to develop our resources. Either we have significant policy changes, or we need a change in government as soon as possible. Another bright spot is our financial sector, as most banks are producing record profits. The manufacturing and automotive sectors are struggling, especially in Ontario. The agriculture sector is stable, being an essential commodity for life.
Real estate continues to struggle deeply in BC and Ontario. I regularly chat with clients and business owners in BC, and many people are finding it more difficult to sell their homes. Sitting on the market for months with lots of competition. The main issue is unaffordability. Home prices are slowly coming down, and homeowners need to be more realistic about their property values if they want to sell. The vast majority of Canadians cannot afford $700,000, $800,000 or million-dollar-plus homes. The average home (single-family, condos, etc.) in Canada costs about $653,000 — 2.6% lower than this time a year ago. Meanwhile, the average rental costs about $2,057 a month, or $24,684 annually — the lowest since 2023. But here is the reality in Vancouver: Average price of a single-family home: $2.07 million. Average condo price: $725,000. Average rental: $2,650 monthly ($31,800 annually). We in the Lower Mainland pay a huge premium due to the RAIN! It is generally better to rent in these types of markets until affordability returns to normal (when a detached home is 3 to 3.5 times the median income of any community or city).
So, how does war impact the markets? Volatility is current, and stock markets correct in the short term. News-driven events are usually short-term, unless they escalate into a global credit crisis. Please do not panic sell, as historically markets return to stability in usually weeks or a month or two. This is what happened after the Ukraine/Russia war broke out. Oil and gas prices are rising as we see today. Gold is a safe-haven asset, and its price jumps (again witnessed today). Silver and base metals will correct in the short term, but once the conflict dies-down, scarce commodities will continue to appreciate. The US dollar rises, and if the risks increase, so will the price of bonds.
More in the video link below:
